Which bias is the discrepancy where people's confidence in their decisions exceeds their actual accuracy?

Which bias is the discrepancy where people's confidence in their decisions exceeds their actual accuracy?

• A. Overconfidence bias
• B. Anchoring and adjustment bias
• C. Hindsight bias
• D. Framing bias

Answer: (A)

Overconfidence bias shows up when people are too sure of their decisions even though their accuracy isn’t as high as their confidence suggests. Confidence often rises because a problem feels familiar, easy, or reassuring, or because feedback is vague or delayed, leading to a miscalibration between how confident you are and how often you’re actually right. This gap between belief in accuracy and real performance is the hallmark of overconfidence bias. Anchoring and adjustment bias isn’t about how confident you feel; it’s about starting from an initial piece of information (the anchor) and not adjusting enough away from it. Hindsight bias is about reinterpreting past events as more predictable after they occur. Framing bias is about how the presentation of information shapes choices. None of these describe the mismatch between confidence and actual accuracy the way overconfidence does.

Overconfidence bias shows up when people are too sure of their decisions even though their accuracy isn’t as high as their confidence suggests. Confidence often rises because a problem feels familiar, easy, or reassuring, or because feedback is vague or delayed, leading to a miscalibration between how confident you are and how often you’re actually right. This gap between belief in accuracy and real performance is the hallmark of overconfidence bias.

Anchoring and adjustment bias isn’t about how confident you feel; it’s about starting from an initial piece of information (the anchor) and not adjusting enough away from it. Hindsight bias is about reinterpreting past events as more predictable after they occur. Framing bias is about how the presentation of information shapes choices. None of these describe the mismatch between confidence and actual accuracy the way overconfidence does.